Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 24

Feb 11, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
1 - 0
Napoli

Hernandez (25')
Hernandez (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Jesus (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Frosinone 2-3 AC Milan
Saturday, February 3 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Napoli

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Napoli 2-1 Hellas Verona
Sunday, February 4 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Though the teams are equal across their last 10 league meetings, with three wins apiece and four draws, Milan have held the upper hand over the past year and can expect to punish Napoli again. The reigning champions are still lacking cohesion, while their predecessors have recently clicked into gear. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AC Milan in this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Napoli
40.62% ( -0.19)	25.42% ( 0.07)	33.96% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 55.84% (

-0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.04% (

-0.3)

47.95% (

0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.87% (

-0.27)

70.13% (

0.27)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.59% (

-0.23)

23.41% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.59% (

-0.33)

57.4% (

0.33)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.91% (

-0.07)

27.09% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.53% (

-0.1)

62.47% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 40.62%

Napoli 33.96%

Draw 25.42%

AC Milan	Draw	Napoli
1-0 @ 9.21% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.24% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.53% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.06% Total : 40.62%	1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.42%	0-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.85% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.42% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.12% ( -0) Other @ 3.04% Total : 33.96%