Europa League

Europa League | Group Stage

Dec 14, 2023 at 8pm UK

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax
3 - 1
AEK Athens

Akpom (5', 56'), Taylor (20')
Brobbey (8'), Sosa (10'), Hato (54'), Sutalo (76')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Garcia (11')
Amrabat (15'), Vida (35'), Moukoudi (45+2'), Almeyda (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Ajax and AEK Athens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Ajax 2-1 Sparta
Saturday, December 9 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

AEK Athens

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: AEK Athens 1-0 Aris
Monday, December 4 at 7pm in Greek Superleague

Goals
for

Top scorers

A 1-1 draw was played out between these two teams in the reverse fixture in Greece two months ago, and another closely-fought contest could be on the cards on Thursday. However, Ajax have put together a strong run of form in recent weeks and we believe that the rejuvenated hosts will do enough to claim a narrow victory over AEK Athens to secure third place in Group B. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 49.66%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.33%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	AEK Athens
49.66% ( -0)	21.77% ( 0)	28.58% ( 0)

Both teams to score 66.25% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.85% (

-0.01)

33.14% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.11% (

-0.01)

54.89% (

0.01)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.18% (

-0)

13.82% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.83% (

-0.01)

41.17% (

0.01)

AEK Athens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.87% (

-0)

23.13% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.01% (

-0)

56.99% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Ajax 49.66%

AEK Athens 28.58%

Draw 21.77%

Ajax	Draw	AEK Athens
2-1 @ 9.16% 1-0 @ 6.33% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.26% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.05% ( -0) 3-2 @ 4.43% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.13% 4-1 @ 2.99% 4-2 @ 2.19% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.04% 5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.07% Other @ 3.83% Total : 49.66%	1-1 @ 9.26% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.71% 0-0 @ 3.2% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.16% ( -0) Other @ 0.44% Total : 21.77%	1-2 @ 6.78% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.68% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.43% 1-3 @ 3.31% 2-3 @ 3.27% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.67% 1-4 @ 1.21% 2-4 @ 1.2% Other @ 3.03% Total : 28.58%