UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Group Stage

Nov 9, 2023 at 8pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
2 - 1
AZ

Carlos (61'), Watkins (81')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Pavlidis (52')

Unai Emery hails "very important" Aston Villa win over AZ in Europa Conference League

Head coach Unai Emery admits that it was "very important" that Aston Villa recorded a comeback 2-1 victory over AZ Alkmaar in the Europa Conference League.

Nov 9, 23:00

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-0 Aston Villa
Sunday, November 5 at 2pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Excelsior 1-1 AZ
Saturday, November 4 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
40.99% ( -0.01)	24.9% ( 0)	34.11% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 57.69% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.43% (

-0.01)

45.57% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.11% (

-0.01)

67.89% (

0.01)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.82% (

-0.01)

22.18% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.41% (

-0.02)

55.59% (

0.02)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.14% (

25.86% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.17% (

60.83%

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 40.99%

AZ Alkmaar 34.11%

Draw 24.9%

Aston Villa	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 8.8% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.64% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.5% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.42% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.26% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0) Other @ 2.38% Total : 40.99%	1-1 @ 11.68% 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.74% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.9%	1-2 @ 7.9% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.25% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.56% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.68% 0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.21% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.48% Total : 34.11%