Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 13, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Austria
2 - 3
Belgium

Laimer (72'), Sabitzer (84' pen.)
Grillitsch (15'), Seiwald (40'), Wimmer (54'), Laimer (77')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Lukebakio (12', 55'), Lukaku (58')
Mangala (24'), Onana (35'), Castagne (63'), Lukaku (78')
Onana (78')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Austria and Belgium, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Austria

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Sweden 1-3 Austria
Tuesday, September 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	5	12	13
2	Austria	5	8	13
3	Sweden	5	3	6
4	Azerbaijan	4	-9	1
5	Estonia	5	-14	1

Belgium

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Belgium 5-0 Estonia
Tuesday, September 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	5	12	13
2	Austria	5	8	13
3	Sweden	5	3	6
4	Azerbaijan	4	-9	1
5	Estonia	5	-14	1

An entertaining Group F contest could in store on Friday between two nations who will want to clinch qualification for Euro 2024 with a victory and get the job done with two games to spare. Both teams are missing a few key players, but we believe that Belgium have the edge in the final third, particular with an in-form Lukaku set to lead the line, and they should outscore the hosts en route to claiming maximum points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 36.97%. A win for Austria had a probability of 36.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.11%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest Austria win was 1-0 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.

Result
Austria	Draw	Belgium
36.19% ( -0.14)	26.84% ( -0.05)	36.97% ( 0.19)

Both teams to score 51.43% (

0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.28% (

0.21)

53.72% (

-0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.8% (

0.18)

75.2% (

-0.18)

Austria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.49% (

0.02)

28.51% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.71% (

0.03)

64.29% (

-0.02)

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.95% (

0.22)

28.05% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.29% (

0.27)

63.71% (

-0.27)

Score Analysis

Austria 36.19%

Belgium 36.96%

Draw 26.83%

Austria	Draw	Belgium
1-0 @ 10.03% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.3% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.63% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.13% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.7% Total : 36.19%	1-1 @ 12.75% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.83%	0-1 @ 10.16% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.11% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.46% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.44% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.81% Total : 36.96%