Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Sep 20, 2023 at 8pm UK

Allianz Arena

Bayern
4 - 3
Man Utd

Sane (28'), Gnabry (32'), Kane (53' pen.), Tel (90+2')
Goretzka (62')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Hojlund (49'), Casemiro (88', 90+5')
Martinez (62')

Manchester United break unwanted 45-year record in Bayern Munich defeat

Manchester United make their worst start to a season since 1987 and break an unwanted 45-year record after losing 4-3 to Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Wednesday.

Sep 20, 23:30

Manchester United's Andre Onana looks dejected on September 20, 2023

Andre Onana accepts blame for Manchester United defeat to Bayern Munich

Goalkeeper Andre Onana insists that he is responsible for Manchester United suffering defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Wednesday night.

Sep 21, 09:15

Erik ten Hag insists Andre Onana will "bounce back" from high-profile error

Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag tips goalkeeper Andre Onana to "bounce back" from his error against Bayern Munich in the Champions League.

Sep 21, 12:18

Paul Scholes slams "softness and weakness" in Manchester United side

Former Manchester United midfielder Paul Scholes says that "there is a softness and weakness" in the current Red Devils side.

Sep 21, 17:28

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions

Last Game: Bayern 2-2 B. Leverkusen
Friday, September 15 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Manchester United

All competitions

Last Game: Man Utd 1-3 Brighton
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 55.07%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 24.54% and a draw had a probability of 20.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.73%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 1-2 (5.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern Munich	Draw	Manchester United
55.07% ( -0.2)	20.38% ( 0.03)	24.54% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 67.49% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

70.08% (

0.04)

29.92% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.91% (

0.05)

51.09% (

-0.04)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.87% (

-0.04)

11.13% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.44% (

-0.09)

35.56% (

0.09)

Manchester United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.93% (

0.14)

24.06% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.66% (

0.2)

58.34% (

-0.2)

Score Analysis

Bayern Munich 55.07%

Manchester United 24.54%

Draw 20.38%

Bayern Munich	Draw	Manchester United
2-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.73% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.46% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 5.88% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 4.79% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.73% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 2.63% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.25% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.16% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.21% Total : 55.07%	1-1 @ 8.37% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 2.68% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.51% Total : 20.38%	1-2 @ 5.97% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 3.81% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.11% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.7% Total : 24.54%