Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 83.65%. A draw had a probability of 10.9% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 5.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 4-0 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.11%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-2 (1.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Portimonense |
83.65% ( -0.1) | 10.89% ( 0.12) | 5.45% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 46.71% ( -0.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
71.16% ( -0.83) | 28.84% ( 0.82) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
50.22% ( -1.02) | 49.78% ( 1.02) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.05% ( -0.17) | 4.95% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
80.18% ( -0.5) | 19.82% ( 0.5) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.14% ( -0.76) | 50.86% ( 0.76) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.75% ( -0.52) | 85.25% ( 0.51) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Portimonense |
3-0 @ 11.39% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.3) 4-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.28) 4-1 @ 5.79% ( -0.1) 5-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 3.48% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.08) 6-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.96% ( -0.08) 6-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.07) 5-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.06) 7-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.77% Total : 83.65% | 1-1 @ 5.11% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 2.52% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.67% Total : 10.89% | 1-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 1.7% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.02% Total : 5.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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