Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 30

Apr 21, 2024 at 4.30pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
1 - 1
B. Leverkusen

Fullkrug (81')
Maatsen (37'), Can (45+2'), Fullkrug (45+3'), Schlotterbeck (88')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Stanisic (90+7')
Tella (28'), Frimpong (88'), Xhaka (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Dortmund 4-2 Atletico
Tuesday, April 16 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: West Ham 1-1 B. Leverkusen
Thursday, April 18 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen

While many observers favour this Leverkusen side to win at Dortmund, Die Werkself have lost seven of their last eight visits to Signal Iduna Park and have not beaten BVB in three consecutive league meetings. The Bundesliga champions should avoid defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia, even if it may not be enough to nick maximum points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 50.3%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.82%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
27.71% ( 0.03)	21.99% ( 0.03)	50.3% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 64.67% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.09% (

-0.12)

34.9% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.11% (

-0.13)

56.88% (

0.13)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.41% (

-0.05)

24.58% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.92% (

-0.06)

59.07% (

0.05)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.75% (

-0.07)

14.24% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58% (

-0.12)

42% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 27.71%

Bayer Leverkusen 50.3%

Draw 21.99%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 6.72% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.14% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.06% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.61% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 2.64% Total : 27.71%	1-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.38% Total : 21.99%	1-2 @ 9.33% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.82% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 6.06% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.32% ( -0) 2-3 @ 4.25% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.95% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.61% Total : 50.3%