Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 12, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Education City Stadium

Croatia
0 - 1
Turkey

Brozovic (12'), Barisic (34'), Modric (88'), Petkovic (89')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Yilmaz (30')
Yilmaz (15'), Cakir (69'), Yildirim (89'), Ayhan (90'), Akgun (90+3')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Croatia and Turkey, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Croatia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Armenia 0-1 Croatia
Monday, September 11 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia	4	8	10
2	Turkey	5	2	10
3	Armenia	5	1	7
4	Wales	5	-1	7
5	Latvia	5	-10	0

Turkey

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Japan 4-2 Turkey
Tuesday, September 12 at 1.20pm in International Friendlies

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Croatia	4	8	10
2	Turkey	5	2	10
3	Armenia	5	1	7
4	Wales	5	-1	7
5	Latvia	5	-10	0

Confirmed as co-hosts for the 2032 Euros this week, Turkey will face two more big games on the road to next year's finals, as Vincenzo Montella's first game is set to end in defeat. While Croatia can move clear at the top of Group D with yet another home win, their visitors could be embroiled in a three-way scramble for second spot. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 40.57%. A win for Turkey had a probability of 34.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Turkey win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result
Croatia	Draw	Turkey
40.57% ( -0.04)	25.38% ( -0.01)	34.05% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 56.01% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.26% (

0.04)

47.74% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.07% (

0.03)

69.93% (

-0.03)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.66% (

-0)

23.34% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.7% (

-0.01)

57.3% (

0.01)

Turkey Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.07% (

0.05)

26.93% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.73% (

0.06)

62.26% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Croatia 40.57%

Turkey 34.05%

Draw 25.37%

Croatia	Draw	Turkey
1-0 @ 9.15% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.23% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.54% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.17% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.08% Total : 40.57%	1-1 @ 11.99% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.29% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.37%	0-1 @ 8.25% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.87% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.44% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 3.08% Total : 34.05%