Eredivisie | Gameweek 5

Sep 17, 2023 at 1.30pm UK

De Grolsch Veste

FC Twente
3 - 1
Ajax

Rots (7'), Steijn (11'), Unuvar (79')
Sadilek (74')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Brobbey (35')
Bergwijn (13'), Hato (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between FC Twente and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Twente

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Volendam 0-2 FC Twente
Sunday, September 3 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Sittard 0-0 Ajax
Sunday, September 3 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

FC Twente have made a promising start to the season, but the fixture list has been kind to them, coming up against two newly-promoted sides. As such, we do not expect the hosts to make it four wins on the bounce this weekend, but they may be good enough to get a point, given that Ajax have made a slow start to the season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 41.4%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.64%) and 2-0 (5.05%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.

Result
FC Twente	Draw	Ajax
41.4% ( -0.83)	22.38% ( -0.31)	36.21% ( 1.15)

Both teams to score 67.6% (

1.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.16% (

1.83)

32.84% (

-1.83)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.46% (

2.08)

54.54% (

-2.07)

FC Twente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.35% (

0.42)

16.65% (

-0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.49% (

0.74)

46.5% (

-0.73)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.11% (

1.38)

18.89% (

-1.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.63% (

2.25)

50.36% (

-2.25)

Score Analysis

FC Twente 41.4%

Ajax 36.21%

Draw 22.38%

FC Twente	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.21) 1-0 @ 5.64% ( -0.48) 2-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.35) 3-1 @ 5.03% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 3.02% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.05) 4-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.51% Total : 41.4%	1-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.36) 2-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 3.15% ( -0.31) 3-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.17) Other @ 0.49% Total : 22.38%	1-2 @ 7.83% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.28) 0-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 4.35% ( 0.21) 2-3 @ 3.9% ( 0.24) 0-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.16) 2-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.16) 0-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.08) 3-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.67% Total : 36.21%