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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 62.66%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 16.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.57%), while for an AZ Alkmaar win it was 1-2 (4.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
Result | ||
Feyenoord | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
62.66% ( 0.24) | 20.4% ( -0.04) | 16.94% ( -0.2) |
Both teams to score 54.63% ( -0.3) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.94% ( -0.18) | 41.05% ( 0.18) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.55% ( -0.19) | 63.44% ( 0.18) |
Feyenoord Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.47% ( 0.01) | 12.53% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.45% ( 0.03) | 38.55% ( -0.03) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.46% ( -0.35) | 37.54% ( 0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.68% ( -0.35) | 74.32% ( 0.34) |
Score Analysis |
Feyenoord | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
2-0 @ 10.14% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.88% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.58% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.49% ( 0) Other @ 3.54% Total : 62.65% | 1-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.4% | 1-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 4.61% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.27% Total : 16.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
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