Streich should not need to go with a full-strength side to pick up three points here, but if matchday three's hat-trick hero Grifo starts, then another healthy scoreline could be in the offing. TSC may need a win to keep any realistic hope of progression alive, even as a third-place Europa Conference League entrant, but this task looks insurmountable for the Serbian runners-up. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 54.94%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 22.72% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 1-2 (5.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	Backa Topola
54.94% ( -0.01)	22.34% ( 0)	22.72% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 57.89% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.56% (

-0.01)

41.44% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.16% (

-0.01)

63.84% (

0.01)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.99% (

-0.01)

15.01% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.52% (

-0.01)

43.48% (

0.01)

Backa Topola Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.12% (

-0)

31.88% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.68% (

68.32% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Freiburg 54.94%

Backa Topola 22.72%

Draw 22.33%

Freiburg	Draw	Backa Topola
2-1 @ 9.84% 1-0 @ 9.08% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.61% 3-1 @ 6.22% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.44% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.95% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.58% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.12% ( -0) 5-0 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 54.94%	1-1 @ 10.37% 2-2 @ 5.62% 0-0 @ 4.79% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.33%	1-2 @ 5.93% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.47% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.13% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.26% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.14% 0-3 @ 1.19% ( 0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 22.72%