Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 12, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Italy
2 - 1
Ukraine

Frattesi (12', 29')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Yarmolenko (41')
Mykolenko (38'), Konoplya (62'), Stepanenko (76'), Zabarnyi (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Italy and Ukraine, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Italy could line up for Tuesday's crucial Euro 2024 qualifying clash against Ukraine.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: N. Macedonia 1-1 Italy
Saturday, September 9 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	5	14	13
2	Ukraine	4	0	7
3	Italy	3	1	4
4	North Macedonia	4	-7	4
5	Malta	4	-8	0

Ukraine

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Ukraine 1-1 England
Saturday, September 9 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	5	14	13
2	Ukraine	4	0	7
3	Italy	3	1	4
4	North Macedonia	4	-7	4
5	Malta	4	-8	0

Italy would have been disappointed to miss out on all three points on Saturday, but we think that they will channel that frustration into motivation for Tuesday's contest, where we believe that they will make full use of home advantage to claim their second win of the qualifying campaign. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 0-1 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.

Result
Italy	Draw	Ukraine
39.33% ( -4.93)	28.35% ( 0.98)	32.32% ( 3.94)

Both teams to score 46.32% (

-1.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.13% (

-2.22)

59.87% (

2.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.86% (

-1.73)

80.14% (

1.72)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.35% (

-3.75)

29.64% (

3.74)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.31% (

-4.8)

65.69% (

4.79)

Ukraine Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.84% (

1.78)

34.16% (

-1.78)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.14% (

1.87)

70.85% (

-1.87)

Score Analysis

Italy 39.33%

Ukraine 32.31%

Draw 28.34%

Italy	Draw	Ukraine
1-0 @ 12.31% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.65) 2-0 @ 7.49% ( -1.01) 3-1 @ 3.26% ( -0.65) 3-0 @ 3.03% ( -0.79) 3-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.25) 4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.33) 4-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.37) Other @ 1.53% Total : 39.33%	1-1 @ 13.22% ( 0.36) 0-0 @ 10.12% ( 0.81) 2-2 @ 4.32% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.34%	0-1 @ 10.87% ( 1.34) 1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0.52) 0-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.97) 1-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.3) 0-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.43) 2-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.32% Total : 32.31%