Europa League

Europa League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Aug 17, 2023 at 7pm UK

Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad)

Ludogorets
5 - 1
Astana

(Ludogorets Razgrad win 6-3 on aggregate)

Tekpetey (25', 50'), Piotrowski (47', 58'), Despodov (67')
Goncalves (54')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Darboe (29')
Ebong (27'), Aymbetov (34'), Jovancic (43')
Jovancic (77')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Ludogorets Razgrad and Astana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ludogorets Razgrad

Last Game: Astana 2-1 Ludogorets
Tuesday, August 8 at 3pm in Europa League

Astana

Last Game: Astana 2-1 Ludogorets
Tuesday, August 8 at 3pm in Europa League

We said: Ludogorets Razgrad 2-0 Astana (Ludogorets win 3-2 on aggregate)

So far this season, Astana have failed to score at the same rate as last term, when they were crowned Kazakh champions. Despite finding the net twice on home soil, Thursday's visitors were shut out twice by Dinamo Zagreb, and if a talented Ludogorets side can keep the back door shut they are sure to overturn their deficit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 69.97%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Astana had a probability of 11.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.51%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.9%), while for an Astana win it was 0-1 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.

Result
Ludogorets Razgrad	Draw	Astana
69.97% ( 0.07)	18.77% ( -0.03)	11.26% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 44.75% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.73% (

0.04)

46.27% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.44% (

0.04)

68.56% (

-0.04)

Ludogorets Razgrad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.97% (

0.03)

12.03% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.49% (

0.06)

37.51% (

-0.06)

Astana Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.87% (

-0.04)

49.13% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.95% (

-0.03)

84.05% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Ludogorets Razgrad 69.96%

Astana 11.26%

Draw 18.77%

Ludogorets Razgrad	Draw	Astana
2-0 @ 13.25% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 12.51% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0) 3-0 @ 9.36% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.52% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.49% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0) Other @ 3.09% Total : 69.96%	1-1 @ 8.9% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.62% Total : 18.77%	0-1 @ 4.2% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.41% Total : 11.26%