Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 8

Oct 21, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

OPEL ARENA

Mainz
1 - 3
Bayern

Caci (43')
Ajorque (45+2'), Kohr (49'), Bell (65')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Coman (11'), Kane (16'), Goretzka (59')
de Ligt (27'), Laimer (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Borussia M'bach 2-2 Mainz
Friday, October 6 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayern Munich

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Freiburg
Sunday, October 8 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Mainz 05 0-2 Bayern Munich

Even with half an eye on Tuesday's Champions League clash with Galatasaray, it should be a straightforward matter for Bayern Munich to halt their losing streak in Mainz this weekend. While the champions can score from all angles, their hosts have been awful at the back this term and cannot hope to keep Bayern at bay for a full 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.74%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 13.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.54%) and 0-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.82%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (3.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Bayern Munich
13.1% ( 0.22)	17.16% ( 0.19)	69.74% ( -0.42)

Both teams to score 56.57% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.15% (

-0.4)

33.85% (

0.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.3% (

-0.45)

55.7% (

0.45)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.98% (

0.06)

38.02% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.21% (

0.06)

74.79% (

-0.06)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.27% (

-0.19)

8.72% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70% (

-0.47)

30% (

0.47)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 13.1%

Bayern Munich 69.74%

Draw 17.16%

Mainz 05	Draw	Bayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 3.21% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.86% Total : 13.1%	1-1 @ 7.82% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 17.16%	0-2 @ 9.87% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.54% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 8.09% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 8.02% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 7.76% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 4.89% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 4.73% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.75% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 2.39% ( -0.06) 1-5 @ 2.31% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 2.29% ( -0.03) 2-5 @ 1.12% ( -0.02) 0-6 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) 1-6 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.08% Total : 69.74%