Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 10

Nov 4, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

OPEL ARENA

Mainz
2 - 0
RB Leipzig

Jae-sung (76'), Barreiro (80')
Caci (39'), Barkok (88'), van den Berg (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Klostermann (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Hertha Berlin 3-0 Mainz
Wednesday, November 1 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

RB Leipzig

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Wolfsburg 1-0 RB Leipzig
Tuesday, October 31 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Mainz 05 0-2 RB Leipzig

Mainz's dreadful start to the season has caught many by surprise - not least those within the club - given their strong performances under Svensson in the last few years. While we believe that they can turn things around, that process is unlikely to begin against an in-form Leipzig team. Indeed, Rose's side have won three successive away games in the Bundesliga and they will be supremely confident of making that four on Saturday, especially with Openda in such excellent form for them in attack. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 64.04%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 16.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.91%) and 0-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	RB Leipzig
16.02% ( 0.13)	19.93% ( 0.1)	64.04% ( -0.23)

Both teams to score 54.18% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.35% (

-0.23)

40.65% (

0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.96% (

-0.23)

63.04% (

0.24)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.58% (

0.02)

38.42% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.83% (

0.02)

75.17% (

-0.02)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.98% (

-0.13)

12.02% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.52% (

-0.28)

37.48% (

0.28)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 16.02%

RB Leipzig 64.04%

Draw 19.93%

Mainz 05	Draw	RB Leipzig
2-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.51% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.43% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 16.02%	1-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.74% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 19.93%	0-2 @ 10.36% 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 7.32% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 7% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 3.88% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 3.71% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.77% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 1.64% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.74% Total : 64.04%