Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 22

Feb 18, 2024 at 2pm UK

Stade de la Mosson

Montpellier
3 - 0
Metz

Sylla (3'), Sagnan (50'), Savanier (86' pen.)
Kouyate (13'), Sagnan (30'), Omeragic (69')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Boloni (14'), Asoro (78'), Cande (83'), Camara (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Montpellier HSC and Metz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Montpellier 1-2 Lyon
Sunday, February 11 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Metz

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Marseille 1-1 Metz
Friday, February 9 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

We said: Montpellier HSC 1-0 Metz

Home wins are a rarity when La Paillade and Les Grenats lock horns, as Montpellier have suffered three defeats and two draws from their last five clashes with Metz at the Stade de la Mosson, going without victory in this exact fixture since 2014. The visitors' efforts against Marseille were commendable, but they must be taken with a pinch of salt owing to Marseille's numerical disadvantage, and Montpellier boast a couple of difference makers in Adams and Teji Savanier capable of conjuring up a magic moment. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 45.3%. A win for Metz had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.

Result
Montpellier HSC	Draw	Metz
45.3% ( 0.7)	25.37% ( -0.05)	29.33% ( -0.65)

Both teams to score 54.07% (

-0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.62% (

-0.09)

49.38% (

0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.58% (

-0.08)

71.42% (

0.08)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.21% (

0.28)

21.79% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.01% (

0.43)

54.99% (

-0.43)

Metz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.14% (

-0.51)

30.86% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.86% (

-0.6)

67.14% (

0.6)

Score Analysis

Montpellier HSC 45.29%

Metz 29.33%

Draw 25.36%

Montpellier HSC	Draw	Metz
1-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 7.81% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.37% Total : 45.29%	1-1 @ 12.04% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.36%	0-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 7.08% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.99% Total : 29.33%