Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 13, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Johan Cruijff Arena

Netherlands
1 - 2
France

Hartman (83')
Veerman (29'), Dumfries (51')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Mbappe (7', 53')
Tchouameni (90+4'), Mbappe (90+6')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Netherlands

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Rep. Ireland 1-2 Netherlands
Sunday, September 10 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	5	11	15
2	Greece	5	5	9
3	Netherlands	4	3	9
4	Republic of Ireland	5	-2	3
5	Gibraltar	5	-17	0

France

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Germany 2-1 France
Tuesday, September 12 at 8pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	5	11	15
2	Greece	5	5	9
3	Netherlands	4	3	9
4	Republic of Ireland	5	-2	3
5	Gibraltar	5	-17	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 37.84%. A win for Netherlands had a probability of 36.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a France win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Netherlands win was 1-0 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France would win this match.

Result
Netherlands	Draw	France
36.98% ( -1.9)	25.18% ( 0.2)	37.84% ( 1.7)

Both teams to score 57.1% (

-0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.49% (

-0.87)

46.51% (

0.87)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.21% (

-0.82)

68.79% (

0.82)

Netherlands Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.33% (

-1.4)

24.67% (

1.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.8% (

-2)

59.19% (

France Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.79% (

0.53)

24.2% (

-0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.46% (

0.74)

58.54% (

-0.74)

Score Analysis

Netherlands 36.98%

France 37.84%

Draw 25.18%

Netherlands	Draw	France
1-0 @ 8.36% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.3% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 5.85% ( -0.27) 3-1 @ 3.87% ( -0.28) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.24) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.16) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.13) Other @ 1.86% Total : 36.98%	1-1 @ 11.85% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 5.97% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 5.89% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.18%	0-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.43) 1-2 @ 8.41% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.39) 1-3 @ 3.98% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.23) 2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.09) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.94% Total : 37.84%