Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.67%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 8.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.88%) and 3-0 (10.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.46%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (3.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Arouca |
75.67% ( -0.62) | 15.68% ( 0.37) | 8.65% ( 0.25) |
Both teams to score 45.16% ( -0.23) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.87% ( -0.91) | 40.13% ( 0.91) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.5% ( -0.95) | 62.49% ( 0.95) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.06% ( -0.36) | 8.94% ( 0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.47% ( -0.88) | 30.53% ( 0.88) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.6% ( -0.06) | 50.4% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.06% ( -0.04) | 84.94% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Arouca |
2-0 @ 13.13% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 10.88% ( 0.28) 3-0 @ 10.57% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 9% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.12) 5-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.13) 3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 2.11% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) 6-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.67% Total : 75.66% | 1-1 @ 7.46% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.63% Total : 15.68% | 0-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 2.55% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.95% Total : 8.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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