Primeira Liga | Gameweek 13

Dec 9, 2023 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Do Dragao

Porto
3 - 1
Casa Pia

Evanilson (12'), Pedro (49'), Pepe (81')
Evanilson (36'), Varela (39'), Sanchez (88')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Fernando (89' pen.)
Roberto (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Casa Pia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estoril 3-1 Porto
Wednesday, December 6 at 6pm in Taca da Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Casa Pia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Casa Pia 1-0 Portimonense
Saturday, December 2 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

History is firmly in favour of Porto in this one. They lost their most recent home game 1-0 to Estoril, and to find the last time that The Dragons were defeated twice in a row on home soil in the top flight, you would need to look back to November 2004. The hosts also have an unbeaten record against this opponent, and we fancy they will keep that intact with another win in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 83.66%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 4.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.27%) and 1-0 (10.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.47%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (2.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Casa Pia
83.66% ( 0.02)	11.63% ( -0.01)	4.7% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 37.31% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.7% (

0.04)

37.3% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.48% (

0.04)

59.51% (

-0.04)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.43% (

0.01)

6.56% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

75.55% (

0.04)

24.44% (

-0.03)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

39.93% (

-0)

60.07% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

9.31% (

-0)

90.68% (

Score Analysis

Porto 83.64%

Casa Pia 4.7%

Draw 11.63%

Porto	Draw	Casa Pia
2-0 @ 14.62% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 13.27% 1-0 @ 10.73% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 9.04% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.45% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.77% ( 0) 5-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.61% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.51% ( 0) 6-0 @ 2.24% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.72% 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0) 6-1 @ 1.14% ( 0) Other @ 3.45% Total : 83.64%	1-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 1.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.32% Total : 11.63%	0-1 @ 2.01% ( -0) 1-2 @ 1.4% ( -0) Other @ 1.29% Total : 4.7%