Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Aug 8, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Philips Stadion
PSV4 - 1Sturm Graz
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Feyenoord 0-1 PSV
Friday, August 4 at 7pm in Dutch Super Cup
Friday, August 4 at 7pm in Dutch Super Cup
Last Game: Sturm Graz 2-0 LASK
Saturday, August 5 at 6.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga
Saturday, August 5 at 6.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga
We said: PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Sturm Graz
Even with a noticeably thin squad and a couple of defensive absentees, a PSV side on cloud nine from their Super Cup triumph should still make light work of Sturm Graz on their own turf, as was the case in the Europa League two seasons ago. It remains to be seen how the Simons-less Lightbulbs will fare under Bosz in the long run, and they will not score for fun on Tuesday, but the visitors' youthful crop surely lack the necessary continental experience to trouble the hosts' backline. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 54.74%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 25.16% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.72%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-2 (5.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Sturm Graz |
54.74% ( -0.06) | 20.1% ( 0.01) | 25.16% ( 0.06) |
Both teams to score 69.32% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.14% ( 0.03) | 27.85% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
51.44% ( 0.03) | 48.56% ( -0.03) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.45% ( -0.01) | 10.54% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.73% ( -0.02) | 34.26% ( 0.01) |
Sturm Graz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.49% ( 0.05) | 22.5% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.93% ( 0.08) | 56.06% ( -0.08) |
Score Analysis |
PSV Eindhoven 54.74%
Sturm Graz 25.16%
Draw 20.1%
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Sturm Graz |
2-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.34% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 5.01% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.78% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.82% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.7% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.4% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.27% 5-0 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 3.59% Total : 54.74% | 1-1 @ 7.96% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.37% ( -0) Other @ 0.6% Total : 20.1% | 1-2 @ 5.94% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.54% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.95% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.64% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.31% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( 0) 3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.19% Total : 25.16% |
How you voted: PSV vs Sturm Graz
PSV Eindhoven
91.3%Draw
7.2%Sturm Graz
1.4%69
Form Guide
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-06-12 09:05:24
Friday, June 14
8pm
Group Stage
Germany
vs.
Scotland
Saturday, June 15
2pm
Group Stage
Hungary
vs.
Switzerland
5pm
Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Croatia
8pm
Group Stage
Italy
vs.
Albania
Sunday, June 16
2pm
Group Stage
Poland
vs.
Netherlands
5pm
Group Stage
Slovenia
vs.
Denmark
8pm
Group Stage
Serbia
vs.
England
Monday, June 17
2pm
Group Stage
Romania
vs.
Ukraine
5pm
Group Stage
Belgium
vs.
Slovakia
8pm
Group Stage
Austria
vs.
France
Tuesday, June 18
5pm
Group Stage
Turkey
vs.
Georgia
8pm
Group Stage
Portugal
vs.
Czech Republic
Wednesday, June 19
2pm
Group Stage
Croatia
vs.
Albania
5pm
Group Stage
Germany
vs.
Hungary
8pm
Group Stage
Scotland
vs.
Switzerland
Thursday, June 20
2pm
Group Stage
Slovenia
vs.
Serbia
5pm
Group Stage
Denmark
vs.
England
8pm
Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Italy
Friday, June 21
2pm
Group Stage
Slovakia
vs.
Ukraine
5pm
Group Stage
Poland
vs.
Austria
8pm
Group Stage
Netherlands
vs.
France
Saturday, June 22
2pm
Group Stage
Georgia
vs.
Czech Republic
5pm
Group Stage
Turkey
vs.
Portugal
8pm
Group Stage
Belgium
vs.
Romania
Sunday, June 23
8pm
Group Stage
Scotland
vs.
Hungary
8pm
Group Stage
Switzerland
vs.
Germany
Monday, June 24
8pm
Group Stage
Albania
vs.
Spain
8pm
Group Stage
Croatia
vs.
Italy
Tuesday, June 25
5pm
Group Stage
France
vs.
Poland
5pm
Group Stage
Netherlands
vs.
Austria
8pm
Group Stage
Denmark
vs.
Serbia
8pm
Group Stage
England
vs.
Slovenia
Wednesday, June 26
5pm
Group Stage
Slovakia
vs.
Romania
5pm
Group Stage
Ukraine
vs.
Belgium
8pm
Group Stage
Czech Republic
vs.
Turkey
8pm
Group Stage
Georgia
vs.
Portugal
Saturday, June 29
5pm
Round of 16
2nd Group A
vs.
2nd Group B
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group A
vs.
2nd Group C
Sunday, June 30
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group C
vs.
3rd Group D/E/F
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group B
vs.
3rd Group A/D/E/F
Monday, July 1
5pm
Round of 16
2nd Group D
vs.
2nd Group E
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group F
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C
Tuesday, July 2
5pm
Round of 16
1st Group E
vs.
3rd Group A/B/C/D
8pm
Round of 16
1st Group D
vs.
2nd Group F
Friday, July 5
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 39
vs.
Winner Match 37
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 41
vs.
Winner Match 42
Saturday, July 6
5pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 40
vs.
Winner Match 38
8pm
Quarter-Finals
Winner Match 43
vs.
Winner Match 44
Group A
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
1 | Germany | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | Hungary | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Group D
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
1 | Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Poland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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