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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 60.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 19.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.72%) and 1-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.3%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
Result | ||
RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
60.01% ( 0.2) | 20.47% ( 0.02) | 19.52% ( -0.22) |
Both teams to score 59.53% ( -0.46) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.99% ( -0.42) | 37.01% ( 0.42) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.8% ( -0.46) | 59.19% ( 0.45) |
RB Leipzig Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.97% ( -0.07) | 12.02% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.5% ( -0.16) | 37.49% ( 0.15) |
Freiburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.67% ( -0.47) | 32.33% ( 0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.17% ( -0.53) | 68.83% ( 0.53) |
Score Analysis |
RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.72% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.21% Total : 60.01% | 1-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.24% Total : 20.47% | 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.4% Total : 19.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 90 |
2 | Stuttgart | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 78 | 39 | 39 | 73 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 94 | 45 | 49 | 72 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 77 | 39 | 38 | 65 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 63 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 47 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 46 |
8 | Heidenheim | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 42 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 42 |
10 | Freiburg | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 58 | -13 | 42 |
11 | Augsburg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 37 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 35 |
14 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 34 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 33 |
16 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 74 | -32 | 33 |
R | FC Koln | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 86 | -56 | 17 |
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