Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Dec 12, 2023 at 8pm UK

Red Bull Arena

Salzburg
1 - 3
Benfica

Sucic (57')
Gourna-Douath (10'), Ratkov (51'), Kameri (82'), Schlager (90')

FT(HT: 0-2)

di Maria (32'), Silva (45+1'), Cabral (90+2')
Morato (45+4'), Musa (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Red Bull Salzburg and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Rapid Vienna 0-1 Salzburg
Saturday, December 9 at 1.30pm in Austrian Bundesliga

Goals
for

Benfica

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Benfica 1-1 Farense
Friday, December 8 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 Benfica

Benfica have recently faltered in the Primeira Liga, and they do not tend to travel well in Europe. If Salzburg can secure an early lead, that could be enough to break the spirit of a side requiring an unlikely big win to leapfrog their hosts and snatch a Europa League place. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 47.81%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 28.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.47%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Red Bull Salzburg	Draw	Benfica
28.6% ( -0.07)	23.6% ( -0.03)	47.81% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 59.55% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.05% (

0.12)

41.95% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.64% (

0.12)

64.36% (

-0.11)

Red Bull Salzburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.41% (

0.02)

27.6% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.88% (

0.02)

63.12% (

-0.01)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.25% (

0.09)

17.75% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.57% (

0.15)

48.44% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Red Bull Salzburg 28.6%

Benfica 47.81%

Draw 23.6%

Red Bull Salzburg	Draw	Benfica
2-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.31% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 4.06% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.01% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 2.88% Total : 28.6%	1-1 @ 10.9% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.6%	1-2 @ 9.42% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.47% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.32% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.43% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 4.22% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.35% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.77% Total : 47.81%