Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 21

Jan 20, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
2 - 1
Hellas Verona

Lukaku (19'), Pellegrini (25')
Paredes (41'), Llorente (56')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Folorunsho (76')
Dawidowicz (52'), Folorunsho (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Roma and Hellas Verona, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 3-1 Roma
Sunday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Hellas Verona

All competitions

Last Game: Hellas Verona 2-1 Empoli
Saturday, January 13 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Roma 3-1 Hellas Verona

Both teams are decimated by absences, but Roma have been freed from the shackles of Jose Mourinho's pragmatic approach and can win over their aggrieved fans with three much-needed points. Verona not only struggle on the road, but their record in Rome is also quite awful. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 68.9%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 11.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.15%) and 3-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a Hellas Verona win it was 0-1 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Hellas Verona
68.9% ( 0.13)	19.9% ( -0.07)	11.19% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 41.13% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.9% (

0.14)

51.09% (

-0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.05% (

0.12)

72.95% (

-0.12)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.21% (

0.08)

13.78% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.9% (

0.17)

41.1% (

-0.16)

Hellas Verona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.71% (

-0.02)

52.29% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.8% (

-0.02)

86.19% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Roma 68.9%

Hellas Verona 11.19%

Draw 19.9%

Roma	Draw	Hellas Verona
1-0 @ 14.28% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 14.15% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.28% Total : 68.9%	1-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 2.97% ( -0) Other @ 0.46% Total : 19.9%	0-1 @ 4.67% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 3% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) Other @ 2% Total : 11.19%