FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round Replays

Feb 6, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton
3 - 0
Watford

Mara (52', 58'), Adams (76')
Smallbone (21'), Obling (51'), Edozie (86'), Armstrong (87')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Morris (46'), Chakvetadze (49'), Porteous (69'), Sierralta (75')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Southampton and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Rotherham 0-2 Southampton
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Watford

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Watford 0-1 Cardiff
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Southampton 3-1 Watford

Southampton have home advantage in this winner-takes-all clash, and they should be confident of extending their unbeaten run to 24 matches on Tuesday night. Watford have a number of attacking players who could cause damage on the South Coast, but we believe that the Hornets' FA Cup journey ends here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 57.92%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Watford had a probability of 20.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Watford
57.92% ( -0.01)	21.9% ( 0)	20.18% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 55.61% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.3%

42.7% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.9% (

-0)

65.1%

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.52% (

-0)

14.47% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.55% (

-0.01)

42.45% (

0.01)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.02% (

0.01)

34.98% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.28% (

0.01)

71.72% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Southampton 57.92%

Watford 20.18%

Draw 21.89%

Southampton	Draw	Watford
2-1 @ 9.93% 1-0 @ 9.79% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.46% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.4% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.09% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.36% 4-1 @ 3.09% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.94% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.62% 5-1 @ 1.2% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 57.92%	1-1 @ 10.27% 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.06% 3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.89%	1-2 @ 5.4% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.32% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.79% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.83% ( 0) 0-3 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 1.97% Total : 20.18%