Primeira Liga | Gameweek 28

Apr 6, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Jose Alvalade

Sporting Lisbon
2 - 1
Benfica

Catamo (1', 90+1')
Catamo (4'), Santos (5'), Hjulmand (27'), Paulinho (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Bah (45+3')
Otamendi (27'), Neres (39'), Bah (45+1'), Tengstedt (74'), Aursnes (86'), Silva (90+9')
Aursnes (90+8')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Benfica 2-2 Sporting Lisbon
Tuesday, April 2 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Benfica

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Benfica 2-2 Sporting Lisbon
Tuesday, April 2 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 Benfica

We expect this match to be a very tight affair like the previous three meetings this season. However, Sporting have been flawless at home so far and have not lost in their last two home matches against Benfica. A slender victory for the home side looks likely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 58.12%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 22.52% and a draw had a probability of 19.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.07%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (5.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Benfica
58.12% ( 0.02)	19.35% ( 0)	22.52% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 68.83% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.85% (

-0.02)

27.15% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

52.32% (

-0.03)

47.67% (

0.03)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.5% (

-0)

9.49% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.15% (

-0.01)

31.84% (

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.05% (

-0.02)

23.94% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.82% (

-0.03)

58.17% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 58.12%

Benfica 22.52%

Draw 19.35%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Benfica
2-1 @ 9.01% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.07% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 5.05% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.95% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.16% 4-2 @ 2.98% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.91% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.96% 4-3 @ 1.42% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.4% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.37% ( 0) Other @ 4.2% Total : 58.12%	1-1 @ 7.65% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.41% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.27% ( 0) Other @ 0.58% Total : 19.35%	1-2 @ 5.47% 0-1 @ 3.25% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.32% 0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.68% Total : 22.52%