La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 19

Jan 2, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio de Mestalla

Valencia
3 - 1
Villarreal

Yaremchuk (4'), Pepelu (27' pen., 57' pen.)
Gaya (63'), Lopez (74')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Moreno (73')
Bailly (37'), Marcelino (38'), Parejo (49'), Capoue (56'), Terrats (80'), Cuenca (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's La Liga clash between Valencia and Villarreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Valencia

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Valencia
Tuesday, December 19 at 6pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Villarreal

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Villarreal 3-2 Celta Vigo
Wednesday, December 20 at 8.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Valencia 2-1 Villarreal

Both teams will be missing some important players for this match, but Villarreal will be hit harder in terms of absentees. It would not be a surprise to see the points shared on Tuesday, but we believe that Valencia have enough quality to navigate their way to a narrow success in front of their own supporters. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 30.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.

Result
Valencia	Draw	Villarreal
43.96% ( -0.01)	25.5% ( 0)	30.54% ( 0)

Both teams to score 54.32% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.64% (

-0.01)

49.36% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.59% (

-0.01)

71.4% (

0.01)

Valencia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.6% (

-0.01)

22.4% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.09% (

-0.01)

55.91% (

0.01)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70% (

-0.01)

30% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.88% (

-0.01)

66.12% (

Score Analysis

Valencia 43.95%

Villarreal 30.54%

Draw 25.49%

Valencia	Draw	Villarreal
1-0 @ 10.05% 2-1 @ 9.06% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.52% 3-1 @ 4.52% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.75% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.4% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 2.23% Total : 43.95%	1-1 @ 12.1% 0-0 @ 6.72% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.45% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.49%	0-1 @ 8.09% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.29% 0-2 @ 4.87% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.93% 2-3 @ 2.19% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.96% ( 0) Other @ 3.23% Total : 30.54%