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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 26.64% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Heidenheim |
50.35% ( 1.56) | 23% ( 0) | 26.64% ( -1.56) |
Both teams to score 60.01% ( -1.38) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.37% ( -1.23) | 40.63% ( 1.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.99% ( -1.27) | 63.01% ( 1.27) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.7% ( 0.11) | 16.3% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.13% ( 0.2) | 45.86% ( -0.2) |
Heidenheim Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.7% ( -1.74) | 28.3% ( 1.74) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.98% ( -2.25) | 64.02% ( 2.25) |
Score Analysis |
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Heidenheim |
2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.14) 1-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.49) 2-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.47) 3-1 @ 5.79% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.3) 3-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.08% ( 0.14) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.46% Total : 50.35% | 1-1 @ 10.56% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.21) 0-0 @ 4.61% ( 0.26) 3-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.24% Total : 23% | 1-2 @ 6.67% ( -0.26) 0-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.26) 2-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.15) Other @ 3.58% Total : 26.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 90 |
2 | Stuttgart | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 78 | 39 | 39 | 73 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 94 | 45 | 49 | 72 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 77 | 39 | 38 | 65 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 63 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 47 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 46 |
8 | Heidenheim | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 42 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 42 |
10 | Freiburg | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 58 | -13 | 42 |
11 | Augsburg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 37 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 35 |
14 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 34 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 33 |
16 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 74 | -32 | 33 |
R | FC Koln | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 86 | -56 | 17 |
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