Unbeaten on home soil since August 2022, Dortmund can prolong their hot streak at Signal Iduna Park against a depleted Milan team, whose midfield options are severely limited at the minute.
The Rossoneri already struggle for prolific attacking displays in the Champions League, and while making the net ripple domestically is never normally an issue for Pioli's team, their powers should wane against a Dortmund side who possess plenty of defensive wherewithal in front of the home crowd.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 49.7%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 27.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
-0.25) 
0.19) 
