Valmiera have plenty of competitive matches under their belt this year and their recent home record bodes well in their quest to turn the first-round tie around.
However, a fresh and fired-up Olimpija outfit, who boast more experience at this stage of Champions League qualifying, should do enough to record at least a draw in the second leg to send them through on aggregate to the next round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valmiera win with a probability of 50.41%. A win for NK Olimpija Ljubljana had a probability of 25.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valmiera win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest NK Olimpija Ljubljana win was 0-1 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.05) 
