Iraq are a dangerous counter-attacking side who have shown they can create chances in transition, but we believe the experienced Colombian backline will be in the right place at the right time to thwart them at every turn.
Colombia have some quality in the attack themselves, and given how familiar they are with one another, we expect the South Americans to be a little bit sharper in possession and make their chances count.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 64.9%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Iraq had a probability of 12.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.74%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Iraq win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Colombia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Colombia.
0.36) 
-0.12) 
