Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 54.78%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 21.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.8%) and 0-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Lorient win it was 1-0 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
Result | ||
Lorient | Draw | Marseille |
21.79% | 23.43% | 54.78% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 52.99% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.66% | 47.34% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.44% ( 0) | 69.56% |
Lorient Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.97% | 36.03% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.19% | 72.81% ( 0) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.84% ( 0) | 17.16% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.6% ( 0) | 47.4% |
Score Analysis |
Lorient | Draw | Marseille |
1-0 @ 6.31% 2-1 @ 5.68% 2-0 @ 3.22% 3-1 @ 1.93% 3-2 @ 1.7% 3-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 1.85% Total : 21.79% | 1-1 @ 11.12% 0-0 @ 6.18% 2-2 @ 5% 3-3 @ 1% Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.43% | 0-1 @ 10.89% 1-2 @ 9.8% 0-2 @ 9.6% 1-3 @ 5.76% 0-3 @ 5.64% 2-3 @ 2.94% 1-4 @ 2.54% 0-4 @ 2.49% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.3% Other @ 3.81% Total : 54.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 34 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 81 | 33 | 48 | 76 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 42 | 26 | 67 |
3 | Brest | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 61 |
4 | Lille | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 59 |
5 | Nice | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 55 |
6 | Lyon | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 53 |
7 | Lens | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 51 |
8 | Marseille | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 50 |
9 | Reims | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 47 |
10 | Rennes | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
11 | Toulouse | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 41 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 43 | 66 | -23 | 29 |
R | Clermont | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |