Major League Soccer

May 19, 2024 at 1.30am UK

Reliant Stadium

Houston
1 - 1
Dallas

Bassi (45+6')
Kowalczyk (54'), Segal (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Musa (69')
Norris (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Houston Dynamo and Dallas, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Houston Dynamo

All competitions

Last Game: Austin 1-0 Houston
Thursday, May 16 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Dallas

All competitions

Last Game: Dallas 2-1 Austin
Sunday, May 12 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Houston Dynamo 1-1 Dallas

Dallas have been the more successful side of the two in the history of this fixture but have struggled to pick up victories when playing away from home, failing to win since August 2016. For that reason, we believe this one will end all square, leaving Dallas to retain El Capitan for a third successive year. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 61.72%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Dallas had a probability of 16.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.59%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Dallas win it was 0-1 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Houston Dynamo	Draw	Dallas
61.72% ( 0.14)	21.95% ( -0.06)	16.33% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 48.27% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.13% (

0.14)

48.87% (

-0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.03% (

0.13)

70.96% (

-0.13)

Houston Dynamo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.68% (

0.09)

15.32% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.94% (

0.17)

44.05% (

-0.17)

Dallas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57% (

-0.01)

43% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.71% (

-0.01)

79.29% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Houston Dynamo 61.71%

Dallas 16.33%

Draw 21.94%

Houston Dynamo	Draw	Dallas
1-0 @ 12.35% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 11.59% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.12% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.2% Total : 61.71%	1-1 @ 10.42% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.13% ( 0) Other @ 0.8% Total : 21.94%	0-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 4.4% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.24% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0) Other @ 1.63% Total : 16.33%