Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 66.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 12.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.48%) and 1-2 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Porto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Porto.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Porto |
12.59% ( 0.34) | 20.74% ( 0.49) | 66.67% ( -0.83) |
Both teams to score 42.83% ( -0.45) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.81% ( -1.19) | 51.19% ( 1.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.97% ( -1.05) | 73.03% ( 1.05) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.1% ( -0.16) | 49.9% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.41% ( -0.11) | 84.59% ( 0.11) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.49% ( -0.64) | 14.5% ( 0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.5% ( -1.24) | 42.5% ( 1.24) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.44% Total : 12.59% | 1-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.34) 2-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.53% Total : 20.74% | 0-1 @ 13.97% ( 0.35) 0-2 @ 13.48% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.38% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 8.68% ( -0.18) 1-3 @ 6.04% ( -0.16) 0-4 @ 4.19% ( -0.19) 1-4 @ 2.91% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.06) 0-5 @ 1.62% ( -0.11) 1-5 @ 1.13% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.15% Total : 66.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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