Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 16.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
Result | ||
Atalanta BC | Draw | Lazio |
61.56% ( 0.22) | 22.04% ( 0.01) | 16.4% ( -0.23) |
Both teams to score 48.12% ( -0.49) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.86% ( -0.41) | 49.14% ( 0.41) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.79% ( -0.37) | 71.21% ( 0.37) |
Atalanta BC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.54% ( -0.06) | 15.46% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.68% ( -0.12) | 44.32% ( 0.12) |
Lazio Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.92% ( -0.53) | 43.07% ( 0.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.65% ( -0.45) | 79.35% ( 0.45) |
Score Analysis |
Atalanta BC | Draw | Lazio |
1-0 @ 12.43% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 11.6% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.08% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 3.37% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.15% Total : 61.55% | 1-1 @ 10.47% 0-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.79% Total : 22.04% | 0-1 @ 5.61% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.63% Total : 16.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 37 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 87 | 20 | 67 | 93 |
2 | AC Milan | 37 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 73 | 46 | 27 | 74 |
3 | Bologna | 37 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 68 |
4 | Juventus | 37 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 66 |
6 | Roma | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 37 | 18 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 60 |
8 | Fiorentina | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 55 | 42 | 13 | 54 |
9 | Torino | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 36 | 33 | 3 | 53 |
10 | Napoli | 37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 52 |
11 | Genoa | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 46 |
12 | Monza | 37 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 45 |
13 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 37 |
14 | Lecce | 37 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 37 |
15 | CagliariCagliari | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 40 | 65 | -25 | 36 |
16 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 35 |
17 | Udinese | 37 | 5 | 19 | 13 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 34 |
18 | Empoli | 37 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 33 |
R | SassuoloSassuolo | 37 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 42 | 74 | -32 | 29 |
R | Salernitana | 37 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 29 | 78 | -49 | 16 |
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