Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 63.34%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 16.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 0-1 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Melbourne City.
Result | ||
Melbourne City | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
63.34% ( 2.01) | 20.24% ( -0.51) | 16.42% ( -1.49) |
Both teams to score 53.99% ( -1.44) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.66% ( -0.36) | 41.34% ( 0.37) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.27% ( -0.37) | 63.73% ( 0.37) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.58% ( 0.47) | 12.42% ( -0.46) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.67% ( 0.96) | 38.33% ( -0.95) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.65% ( -1.97) | 38.35% ( 1.98) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.89% ( -1.94) | 75.11% ( 1.95) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne City | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
2-0 @ 10.36% ( 0.52) 1-0 @ 9.94% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.48) 3-1 @ 6.91% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.31) 4-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.16) 5-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.54% Total : 63.34% | 1-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 4.76% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( -0.27) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.25% | 0-1 @ 4.57% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.35) 0-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.18) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.2) Other @ 2.12% Total : 16.42% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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