Given that 12 of Sarmiento's last 13 matches have produced fewer than three goals, Friday's clash looks destined to be a low-scoring affair, especially when you consider that Damonte's men have not conceded a goal in five outings. Accordingly, we expect the visitors to notch a clean-sheet victory at the Estadio Libertadores de America, extending their unbeaten streak to seven games while heaping more misery on Independiente. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 45.39%. A draw had a probability of 31.2% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 23.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.02%) and 2-1 (7.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.4%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.

Result
Independiente	Draw	Sarmiento
45.39% ( -0.08)	31.16% ( 0.03)	23.46% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 35.25% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

28.84% (

-0.05)

71.16% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

12.03% (

-0.03)

87.97% (

0.03)

Independiente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.04% (

-0.07)

31.96% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.59% (

-0.08)

68.41% (

0.08)

Sarmiento Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.8% (

0.01)

48.2% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.63% (

0.01)

83.37% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Independiente 45.38%

Sarmiento 23.46%

Draw 31.15%

Independiente	Draw	Sarmiento
1-0 @ 17.57% 2-0 @ 10.02% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.32% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.81% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.78% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 1.78% Total : 45.38%	0-0 @ 15.4% ( 0.03) 1-1 @ 12.82% 2-2 @ 2.67% ( -0) Other @ 0.26% Total : 31.15%	0-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 4.68% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.1% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.14% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 1.3% Total : 23.46%