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Brest logo
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 4
Sep 20, 2020 at 2pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
Lorient logo

Brest
3 - 2
Lorient

Perraud (30'), Mounie (32'), Honorat (62')
Belkebla (4'), Mbock (73')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Herelle (34' og.), Monconduit (90+1')
Hamel (85')

Preview: Brest vs. Lorient - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Lorient, including team news and predicted lineups.

Brest will be aiming to keep the momentum going from their recent victory over Dijon when they play host to Lorient in Ligue 1 on Sunday.

In contrast, Lorient have now lost their last two on the bounce after coming out on the wrong end of the scoreline in a five-goal thriller with Lens.


Match preview

Brest coach Olivier Dall'Oglio pictured in January 2020© Reuters

Brest finally managed get their season up and running with a 2-0 victory at Dijon last weekend, although the visitors were helped by Roger Assale's sending-off just before the hour mark.

Nevertheless, goals from Romain Perraud and Irvin Cardona – the latter coming just before the final whistle blew – saw Brest record their first points of the new campaign at the third time of asking following defeats to Nimes and Marseille.

Having conceded a combined seven goals in their opening two games, Olivier Dall'Oglio would no doubt have been delighted to see his side keep a clean sheet as they endeavour to secure a third season of top-flight football.

Brest lost their first home game of the season 3-2 to Marseille, but Les Pirates are generally strong on familiar territory – Dall'Oglio's side have lost just three times at the Stade Francis-Le Ble since gaining promotion to Ligue 1 in 2019, although two of those losses have come in their last two.

Christophe Pelissier pictured in charge of Amiens in February 2019© Reuters

In contrast, Lorient fell to their second defeat in succession last time out as Lens enjoyed a 3-2 victory in a clash between two newly-promoted teams.

Christophe Pelissier's side restored a little bit of parity through Yoane Wissa's late spot kick, but Lorient were unable to find a winner in the short time that remained and have now lost two of their opening three matches.

Last season's Ligue 2 table toppers will be keen to avoid an extended winless run if they are to distance themselves from the drop zone before the season hots up, and the goals of club-record signing Adrian Grbic will be instrumental in Lorient's survival hopes.

Brest and Lorient met once last season, with Pelissier's men getting the better of Brest in the Coupe de France with a 2-1 triumph after extra time, while Les Pirates recorded a 3-2 victory in this fixture in the 2018-19 Ligue 2 campaign.

Brest Ligue 1 form: LLW

Lorient Ligue 1 form: WLL


Team News

Trevoh Chalobah celebrates winning the FA Youth Cup with Chelsea in 2016© Reuters

Brest pair Paul Lasne and Franck Honorat missed out the victory at Dijon but are back in training and should be fine for Sunday's showdown with Lorient.

However, Ronael Pierre-Gabriel and Haris Belkebla had to be forced off last weekend and are doubts for this one, but Dall'Oglio has confirmed that both injuries are not as bad as initially feared.

Should Gabriel be forced to miss out, Julien Faussurier is in line to deputise on the right-hand side of defence, while Cristian Battocchio could replace Belkebla in midfield.

As for Lorient, new signing Armand Lauriente, who recently arrived from Rennes, will be forced to wait for his debut after picking up an adductor injury.

Pierre-Yves Hamel could return to the squad after suffering a concussion, while Chelsea loanee Trevoh Chalobah made his debut for the Ligue 1 outfit off the bench last weekend and will be hoping for more minutes here.

Brest possible starting lineup:
Larsonneur; Faussurier, Herelle, Duverne, Perraud; Battocchio, Diallo; Honorat, Charbonnier, Tavares; Cardona

Lorient possible starting lineup:
Nardi; Mendes, Laporte, Fontaine, Le Goff; Lemoine, Le Fee, Boisgard; Diarra, Grbic, Wissa


SM words green background

We say: Brest 1-1 Lorient

There is hardly anything to separate these two sides heading into gameweek four, and both managers will be keen to avoid a third defeat early on in the campaign. As a result, we are expecting this one to end all square on Sunday afternoon.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 38.29%. A win for Brest had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (9.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.


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