Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 14

Dec 9, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
2 - 3
RB Leipzig

Sule (45+6'), Fullkrug (90+3')
Ozcan (60')
Hummels (15')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Bensebaini (32' og.), Baumgartner (54'), Poulsen (90+1')
Simakan (35'), Simons (61'), Openda (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Stuttgart 2-0 Dortmund
Wednesday, December 6 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

RB Leipzig

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, December 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-4 RB Leipzig

Goals are to be expected in this highly-anticipated contest as the net has rippled at least three times in 10 of the last 14 meetings between these two teams. Leipzig have had plenty of joy over Dortmund in the last few years and we feel that Rose's men, refreshed after a week off, have the firepower to cause problems in the final third once again when they face a depleted and deflated BVB outfit who have been conceding goals for fun of late. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.57%) and 3-1 (5.46%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	RB Leipzig
44.5% ( -0.09)	21.98% ( 0.01)	33.51% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 68.38% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.47% (

-0.05)

31.53% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.99% (

-0.06)

53.01% (

0.06)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.04% (

-0.06)

14.96% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.62% (

-0.1)

43.37% (

0.09)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.41% (

0.01)

19.59% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.48% (

0.02)

51.52% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 44.5%

RB Leipzig 33.51%

Draw 21.98%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	RB Leipzig
2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.57% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.46% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.29% ( -0) 3-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.59% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.15% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.33% Total : 44.5%	1-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 7.03% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.93% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 2.42% ( -0) Other @ 0.53% Total : 21.98%	1-2 @ 7.4% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.02% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.82% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.12% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.64% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.56% ( 0) 3-4 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 3.31% Total : 33.51%