Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Jun 8, 2023 at 1am UK

Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Aucas
0 - 0
Nublense

Carcelen (89')
Caicedo (10')

Zalazar (34'), Caroca (45+5'), Oyarzo (46'), Rubio (48'), Aranguiz (52'), Henriquez (74')
Zalazar (38')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Aucas and Nublense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aucas

Last Game: Aucas 1-2 Racing
Wednesday, May 24 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Nublense

Last Game: Nublense 1-1 Flamengo
Thursday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Aucas will be hopeful of gaining revenge over Nublense when the Chilean club visit Ecuador, but the hosts may have to settle for a point as they aim to end a run of three straight losses. Given that Nublense have suffered a solitary defeat in their last six outings across all competitions, we expect the Red Devils to frustrate El Idolo de Quito once again. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aucas win with a probability of 52.96%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Nublense had a probability of 21.81%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aucas win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a Nublense win it was 0-1 (7.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Aucas	Draw	Nublense
52.96% ( -0.48)	25.22% ( 0.3)	21.81% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 47.67% (

-0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.59% (

-0.97)

54.4% (

0.97)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.22% (

-0.82)

75.77% (

0.81)

Aucas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.45% (

-0.58)

20.54% (

0.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.94% (

-0.93)

53.05% (

0.92)

Nublense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60% (

-0.38)

39.99% (

0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.35% (

-0.35)

76.64% (

0.34)

Score Analysis

Aucas 52.95%

Nublense 21.81%

Draw 25.21%

Aucas	Draw	Nublense
1-0 @ 13% ( 0.26) 2-0 @ 10.28% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.43% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.13) 3-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 2.15% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 0.9% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.54% Total : 52.95%	1-1 @ 11.91% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 8.22% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 4.32% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.76% Total : 25.21%	0-1 @ 7.53% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 5.46% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.33% Total : 21.81%