Given Patronato's repeated failings in front of goal away from home, there should be no repeat of the 4-1 thumping that they dished out on Melgar last month, especially with the hosts fighting for their lives at the bottom of the section. Victory may still be out of reach for Sosa's men amid their struggles to convert draws into wins, but a point would be good enough to keep the race for third place alive until the final whistle blows on matchday six, while also extinguishing any slim Patronato hopes of a top-two finish. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 19.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.

Result
Melgar	Draw	Patronato
54.77% ( 0.36)	25.27% ( -0.16)	19.96% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 45.09% (

0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.48% (

0.34)

56.53% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.49% (

0.27)

77.52% (

-0.27)

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.35% (

0.28)

20.66% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.77% (

0.44)

53.23% (

-0.44)

Patronato Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.82% (

-0.02)

43.18% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.56% (

-0.02)

79.44% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Melgar 54.76%

Patronato 19.96%

Draw 25.27%

Melgar	Draw	Patronato
1-0 @ 14.06% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 4.9% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.93% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.28% Total : 54.76%	1-1 @ 11.81% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.63% Total : 25.27%	0-1 @ 7.49% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 1.88% Total : 19.96%