While the hosts have made it to the knockout stages of this competition, they have been very poor for the majority of the season and are likely to find it much more difficult as they come up against the better teams in the competition. The visitors have not been incredible themselves, but they have been scoring relatively freely in this competition and domestically, and we fancy that they will be able to outscore their opponents in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 46.58%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 26.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Defensa y Justicia in this match.

Result
Emelec	Draw	Defensa y Justicia
46.58% ( -0.07)	27.36% ( 0.03)	26.06% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 45.96% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.2% (

-0.08)

58.8% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.68% (

-0.06)

79.31% (

0.06)

Emelec Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.73% (

-0.07)

25.26% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.97% (

-0.09)

60.02% (

0.09)

Defensa y Justicia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.5% (

-0.01)

38.49% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.76% (

-0.01)

75.24% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Emelec 46.57%

Defensa y Justicia 26.06%

Draw 27.35%

Emelec	Draw	Defensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 13.37% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.03% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.2% Total : 46.57%	1-1 @ 12.77% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.35%	0-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.1% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.43% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.94% 0-3 @ 1.41% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0) Other @ 1.56% Total : 26.06%