EFL Cup

EFL Cup | First Round

Aug 9, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Ashton Gate Stadium

Bristol City
5 - 1
Oxford Utd

Cornick (15'), Knight (35', 47'), Wells (51'), Naismith (62')
Dickie (55'), Roberts (90+7')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Bodin (30')
Brown (45+4'), Murphy (70'), Rodrigues (89')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's EFL Cup clash between Bristol City and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bristol City

All competitions

Last Game: Bristol City 1-1 Preston
Saturday, August 5 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Oxford United

All competitions

Last Game: Cambridge 2-0 Oxford Utd
Saturday, August 5 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

We said: Bristol City 2-1 Oxford United

Pearson will make changes for this contest in a bid to assess his squad depth ahead of the end of the transfer window. That should give the visitors an opportunity to cause a surprise, but we feel that the Robins have enough quality at their disposal to secure the win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol City win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bristol City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bristol City would win this match.

Result
Bristol City	Draw	Oxford United
39.49% ( -0.56)	25.83% ( 0.16)	34.67% ( 0.39)

Both teams to score 54.59% (

-0.49)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.37% (

-0.66)

49.62% (

0.65)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.35% (

-0.59)

71.64% (

0.59)

Bristol City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.26% (

-0.59)

24.74% (

0.58)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.7% (

-0.83)

59.29% (

0.82)

Oxford United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.53% (

-0.08)

27.46% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.04% (

-0.1)

62.95% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Bristol City 39.49%

Oxford United 34.67%

Draw 25.83%

Bristol City	Draw	Oxford United
1-0 @ 9.49% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8.57% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 6.63% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 3.09% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.69% Total : 39.49%	1-1 @ 12.26% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 6.79% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.83%	0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 7.93% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.67% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 3.41% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 2.95% Total : 34.67%