EFL Cup

EFL Cup | First Round

Aug 8, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Cheltenham
0 - 2
Birmingham

Davies (31'), Southwood (63'), Chapman (71'), Freestone (75')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Bacuna (24', 32')
Bacuna (43'), James (63')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Cheltenham Town and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cheltenham Town

All competitions

Last Game: Shrewsbury 1-0 Cheltenham
Saturday, August 5 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Birmingham City

All competitions

Last Game: Swansea 1-1 Birmingham
Saturday, August 5 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Cheltenham Town 1-2 Birmingham City

Cheltenham were unsuccessful during their opening game of the League One season, but an unbeaten home record since February will be hard for Birmingham to break. Blues travel to face the Robins for the second time in less than a month, and we believe Eustace's men will have enough quality in their squad on the night to book a place in round two. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 51.09%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.67%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.

Result
Cheltenham Town	Draw	Birmingham City
25.15% ( -0.01)	23.76% ( -0)	51.09% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 55.96% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.67% (

0.01)

45.32% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.34% (

0.01)

67.66% (

-0.01)

Cheltenham Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.06% (

-0)

31.94% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.61% (

-0)

68.39% (

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.22% (

0.01)

17.77% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.52% (

0.01)

48.48% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Cheltenham Town 25.15%

Birmingham City 51.09%

Draw 23.76%

Cheltenham Town	Draw	Birmingham City
1-0 @ 6.48% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.39% ( -0) 2-0 @ 3.7% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.43% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.1% 3-0 @ 1.41% ( -0) Other @ 2.65% Total : 25.15%	1-1 @ 11.19% 0-0 @ 5.68% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.52% 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.76%	0-1 @ 9.81% ( -0) 1-2 @ 9.67% ( 0) 0-2 @ 8.47% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.57% ( 0) 0-3 @ 4.88% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.18% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.4% ( 0) 0-4 @ 2.11% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.37% ( 0) Other @ 3.64% Total : 51.09%