EFL Cup

EFL Cup | First Round

Aug 8, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

The Lamex Stadium

Stevenage
2 - 1
Watford

March (43')
Forster-Caskey (5'), Presley (60'), Freeman (65')

FT
(aet)

Issouf Bayo (6')
Sierralta (46'), Hoedt (59'), Kone (67'), Livermore (82'), Kayembe (90+10')

Stevenage win 4-3 on penalties

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Stevenage and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stevenage

All competitions

Last Game: Northampton 0-1 Stevenage
Saturday, August 5 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Watford

All competitions

Last Game: Watford 4-0 QPR
Saturday, August 5 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Watford's side will be very different to the one that started against QPR on Saturday, but Stevenage will also not be at full strength on Tuesday evening. There is a big difference in terms of quality between the two squads, and we are expecting the visitors to comfortably progress to the second round of the competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Watford had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%).

Result
Stevenage	Draw	Watford
40.75% ( -0.01)	26.75% ( 0)	32.5% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 51.12% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.15% (

-0.01)

53.84% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.69% (

-0.01)

75.31% (

0.01)

Stevenage Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.01% (

-0.01)

25.99% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.99% (

-0.01)

61.01% (

0.01)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.07%

30.93% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.78%

67.22% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Stevenage 40.75%

Watford 32.5%

Draw 26.75%

Stevenage	Draw	Watford
1-0 @ 10.83% 2-1 @ 8.56% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.3% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.28% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.3% 4-0 @ 1.1% ( -0) Other @ 2.28% Total : 40.75%	1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.04% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.03% Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.75%	0-1 @ 9.43% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.46% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.54% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.92% 0-3 @ 2.17% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0) Other @ 3.03% Total : 32.5%