UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Group Stage

Dec 14, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszalka Jozefa Pilsudskiego

Legia
2 - 0
AZ

Ribeiro (34'), Kramer (81')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Martins Indi (53')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Legia Warsaw and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Legia Warsaw

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: LKS Lodz 1-1 Legia
Sunday, December 10 at 2pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Goals
for

Top scorers

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: AZ 4-1 Almere City
Saturday, December 9 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Legia Warsaw 2-1 AZ Alkmaar

Legia have not been at their best of late, but a crucial Conference League clash in front of their passionate fanbase will raise performance levels by at least 5%. AZ have a massive job on their hands as they try to keep their European dreams alive, and we feel that the Dutch side's participation in the competition will come to a dramatic end in Warsaw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 35.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Legia Warsaw would win this match.

Result
Legia Warsaw	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
39.56% ( -0.1)	24.61% ( 0.02)	35.83% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 59.06% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.06% (

-0.09)

43.94% (

0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.68% (

-0.09)

66.32% (

0.09)

Legia Warsaw Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.83% (

-0.09)

22.17% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.43% (

-0.14)

55.58% (

0.14)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.89% (

24.11% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.59% (

58.41% (

Score Analysis

Legia Warsaw 39.56%

AZ Alkmaar 35.83%

Draw 24.61%

Legia Warsaw	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 8.63% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.05% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.05% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.42% Total : 39.56%	1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.61%	1-2 @ 8.15% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.61% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.86% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.57% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.37% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.04% ( -0) 0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.01% Total : 35.83%