Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 20, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadion Stozice

Slovenia
2 - 1
Kazakhstan

Sesko (41' pen.), Verbic (86')
Verbic (86')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Orazov (48')
Vorogovskiy (40'), Kuat (61'), Maliy (79'), Alip (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Slovenia and Kazakhstan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Slovenia

All competitions

Last Game: Denmark 2-1 Slovenia
Friday, November 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Denmark	9	11	22
2	Slovenia	9	10	19
3	Kazakhstan	9	5	18
4	Finland	9	7	15
5	Northern Ireland	9	-6	6
6	San Marino	9	-27	0

Kazakhstan

All competitions

Last Game: Kazakhstan 3-1 San Marino
Friday, November 17 at 3pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Denmark	9	11	22
2	Slovenia	9	10	19
3	Kazakhstan	9	5	18
4	Finland	9	7	15
5	Northern Ireland	9	-6	6
6	San Marino	9	-27	0

We said: Slovenia 3-1 Kazakhstan

Despite a potentially tense affair being on the cards for hosts Slovenia, knowing they only need to avoid defeat may settle the side down slightly after defeat on Friday. Having come so close, Kazakhstan will be devastated if they are to fall at the final hurdle, but against a side who beat them at home earlier in the campaign, it may be just too much to ask for the dark horses in Group H. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 57.15%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 19.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (6.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.

Result
Slovenia	Draw	Kazakhstan
57.15% ( 0.43)	23.84% ( -0.19)	19.01% ( -0.25)

Both teams to score 47.61% (

0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.61% (

0.4)

52.39% (

-0.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.93% (

0.34)

74.07% (

-0.34)

Slovenia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.85% (

0.31)

18.14% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.89% (

0.52)

49.11% (

-0.52)

Kazakhstan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.16% (

-0.05)

41.84% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.71% (

-0.04)

78.29% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Slovenia 57.13%

Kazakhstan 19.01%

Draw 23.84%

Slovenia	Draw	Kazakhstan
1-0 @ 12.95% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.34% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.38% Total : 57.13%	1-1 @ 11.29% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.59% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 4.2% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.76% Total : 23.84%	0-1 @ 6.61% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.22% ( 0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 19.01%