Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals

Mar 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Cardiff City Stadium

Wales
4 - 1
Finland

Brooks (3'), Williams (38'), Johnson (47'), James (86')
James (54'), Wilson (65'), Mepham (74'), Moore (90+5')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Pukki (45')
Lod (22'), Tenho (50'), Hakans (68')

Rob Page: Wales only at "half time" after thrashing Finland

Rob Page stresses that Wales have only reached half time after witnessing the Dragons thrash Finland by a 4-1 scoreline in their Euro 2024 playoff semi-final.

Mar 21, 22:48

The Match

Match Report

Wales beat Finland 4-1 in Cardiff to set up a Euro 2024 playoff final versus Poland on Tuesday.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Wales and Finland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wales

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Wales 1-1 Turkey
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	8	7	17
2	Croatia	8	9	16
3	Wales	8	0	12
4	Armenia	8	-2	8
5	Latvia	8	-14	3

Finland

All competitions

Last Game: San Marino 1-2 Finland
Monday, November 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	10	11	22
2	Denmark	10	9	22
3	Finland	10	8	18
4	Kazakhstan	10	4	18
5	Northern Ireland	10	-4	9
6	San Marino	10	-28	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 38.2%. A win for Finland had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.

Result
Wales	Draw	Finland
38.2% ( 1.19)	27.47% ( -0.16)	34.33% ( -1.03)

Both teams to score 49.28% (

0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.65% (

0.52)

56.35% (

-0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.62% (

0.41)

77.38% (

-0.41)

Wales Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.4% (

0.96)

28.6% (

-0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.6% (

1.18)

64.4% (

-1.18)

Finland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.02% (

-0.4)

30.98% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.72% (

-0.48)

67.28% (

0.48)

Score Analysis

Wales 38.2%

Finland 34.33%

Draw 27.47%

Wales	Draw	Finland
1-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 6.94% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 3.4% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.78% Total : 38.2%	1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.86% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.47%	0-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.86% Other @ 3.04% Total : 34.33%