FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round Replays

Feb 7, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Blundell Park

Grimsby Town
3 - 0
Luton

Clifton (9'), Orsi (28'), Amos (45+5')
Morris (33'), Amos (43'), Efete (80')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Watson (43'), Onyedinma (90')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Grimsby Town and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Grimsby Town

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Crewe 0-3 Grimsby Town
Saturday, February 4 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Luton Town

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Luton 1-0 Stoke
Saturday, February 4 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Grimsby Town 1-2 Luton Town

Grimsby gave a good account of themselves at Kenilworth Road, and we expect the Mariners to produce another competitive performance on Tuesday, but we think that Luton's Championship quality will shine through in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 45.48%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.88%) and 1-2 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Grimsby Town win it was 1-0 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.

Result
Grimsby Town	Draw	Luton Town
27.1% ( 1.51)	27.42% ( 0.79)	45.48% ( -2.3)

Both teams to score 46.52% (

-1.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.54% (

-1.92)

58.46% (

1.92)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.95% (

-1.52)

79.05% (

1.52)

Grimsby Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.58% (

0.24)

37.42% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.8% (

0.23)

74.2% (

-0.23)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.34% (

-1.96)

25.66% (

1.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.44% (

-2.74)

60.56% (

2.74)

Score Analysis

Grimsby Town 27.1%

Luton Town 45.48%

Draw 27.42%

Grimsby Town	Draw	Luton Town
1-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.72) 2-1 @ 6.31% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 4.64% ( 0.38) 3-1 @ 2.07% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.72% Total : 27.1%	1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.29) 0-0 @ 9.6% ( 0.68) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.12) Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.42%	0-1 @ 13.06% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 8.88% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 8.73% ( -0.3) 0-3 @ 4.03% ( -0.41) 1-3 @ 3.96% ( -0.38) 2-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.17) 0-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.23) 1-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.21) Other @ 2.15% Total : 45.48%