FA Cup

FA Cup | First Round

Nov 4, 2023 at 3pm UK

Rodney Parade

Newport
2 - 0
Oldham

McLoughlin (20', 80')
Morris (19'), Wood (70'), Bogle (90+7')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sheron (10'), Kitching (22')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the FA Cup First Round clash between Newport County and Oldham Athletic.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newport County

All competitions

Last Game: Newport 0-1 West Ham U21s
Tuesday, October 31 at 7.30pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

Oldham Athletic

All competitions

Last Game: Oldham 2-2 Altrincham
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in National League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Oldham Athletic had a probability of 29.66% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Oldham Athletic win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.

Result
Newport County	Draw	Oldham Athletic
46.07% ( 0.04)	24.26% ( -0.05)	29.66% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 57.97% (

0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.64% (

0.23)

44.35% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.27% (

0.22)

66.73% (

-0.22)

Newport County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.6% (

0.11)

19.39% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.8% (

0.18)

51.2% (

-0.18)

Oldham Athletic Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.92% (

0.12)

28.08% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.26% (

0.16)

63.74% (

-0.15)

Score Analysis

Newport County 46.07%

Oldham Athletic 29.66%

Draw 24.26%

Newport County	Draw	Oldham Athletic
2-1 @ 9.3% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.93% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 7.33% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.09% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.01% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.09% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.14% Total : 46.07%	1-1 @ 11.34% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.26%	1-2 @ 7.21% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.92% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.86% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 29.66%