Despite an unenviable list of injuries, Dortmund have been firing on all cylinders in pre-season and should have little trouble asserting their dominance on home soil this weekend. While Ajax also have their own fitness and international-related concerns bedevilling them, Steijn has plenty of issues to solve on the field as well, and Sunday's game could prove to be a humbling afternoon for the Amsterdam outfit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.33%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.86%) and 3-2 (5.05%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Ajax
47.33% ( 0.04)	20.8% ( -0)	31.87% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 72.24% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

73.74% (

0.01)

26.26% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

53.45% (

0.01)

46.55% (

-0.01)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.96% (

0.02)

12.04% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.48% (

0.03)

37.52% (

-0.03)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.13% (

-0.01)

17.87% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.35% (

-0.02)

48.65% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 47.33%

Ajax 31.87%

Draw 20.8%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 8.3% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.86% ( 0) 3-2 @ 5.05% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.82% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.56% 3-0 @ 3.4% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.1% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.67% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.8% ( 0) 4-3 @ 1.53% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.31% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.13% ( 0) Other @ 3.79% Total : 47.33%	1-1 @ 7.84% ( -0) 2-2 @ 7.15% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.9% 0-0 @ 2.15% ( -0) Other @ 0.77% Total : 20.8%	1-2 @ 6.75% ( -0) 2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.88% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.7% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.19% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.77% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.67% ( -0) 3-4 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 3.73% Total : 31.87%